I've been thinking a lot lately on various investments that would be able to handle the pending recession. There are the obvious answers (gold, basic materials, etc.), but I'm trying to round things out a bit.It seems to me that when money is tight, people certainly cut back their spending, but the need for entertainment and pleasantry still exists. Cheap entertainment and thrills seem like a decent bet. Movies used to fall into this category I'd think, but that's just not the case anymore. I wonder if Netflix/blockbuster and other rental outlets would fit? Video games actually work out to be cheaper than most forms of entertainment, but they have such a high barrier to entry. Gamestop might be an answer to that, being that they sell a great deal of pre-owned (cheaper) games.
My sister pointed out makeup companies. That might sound a little funny, but truthfully if a $10 thing of lip gloss makes someone feel better, then it might match up perfectly. Never under estimate the feel good powers of vanity. That would suggest who, Proctor & Gamble?
Costco, BJ's, Walmart, Target, Dollar Tree, Big Lots -- big box stores and discount chains are a likely candidate. I started wondering about home depot. Normally, I'd say probably not, but given that much of this is caused by housing, maybe. People aren't going to be able to sell like they used to and will probably be planning on staying around a little longer. There might be a decent amount of home improvement going on, it's just whether or not that amount of home improvement is greater than the home improvement that was taking place during the housing boom. Probably not, but might be worth keeping an eye on.
Vacations are likely to be cut back on as well, but that doesn't mean families still won't try to go places and it doesn't mean that business will stop sending folks to different cities. Cheap destinations, discount travel outlets, discount airlines and discount hotel chains might be worth looking into (I think I'll pass on Spirit, though ;). When Kat and I were visiting family up in Ohio, we went to an indoor water park. I remember it as being a bit more pricey than I would have suspected, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were cheaper alternatives. It wasn't a water park like oh-my-god-a-water-park!, but more of an indoor pool with a bunch of neat slides attached to a hotel/destination type of place.
I've already been researching and following along with the alternative fuels world. I think given our economic situation, national politics and the general pulse of things, alternative energy will become even bigger in all this. A big part of our economic situation is oil. China isn't going to slow down their growth anytime soon, so oil demands aren't going to go down anytime soon. High oil creates higher inflation. The best way for us to reduce this added inflation may very well be alternative energy sources (combined with some clever Fed moves, of course). If the next president of the United States is a Democrat or one of the few Republicans pushing for massive energy reform, this sector will blow up.
Am I missing anything? Is my head in the right place or am I off base? I wasn't quite "investing age" during the last real recession we had, so I'm kinda basing this all off of logic. ;)


Comments...
(Page 1)1. I think people will also spend money on investing in that idea they've had in the back of their mind or on expanding something they've been tinkering with. Once things slow down, they can use the downtime to get motivated to make a change they think will put them in a better position.
I'd be interested to see the stats (and I'm too lazy to Google them right now) on how many new businesses are started during recessionary periods compared to growth periods--as well as their success rate.
10:11AM on Jan 16th 2008 by Chris Scott
2. Alex,
It's funny you mentioned home depot/renovations. From a homeowners POV, considering I have owned my house for about 3 years now, the last thing I want to do is sell in a recession. Why not take this time to upgrade and do renovations on the house to increase its value, and ride it out? Two things could change that.
A. I am forced to sell (lets hope not)
B.The market is hot again
Another thing we may see is many people trying to rent out their homes so they can get purchase a newer home in a buyers market. I think the days of people trying to flip homes in Orlando is over.
10:12AM on Jan 16th 2008 by Chris Husein
3. Chris S - That's a great point, especially web companies. Post bubble / 9/11 economy was probably a major catalyst to the "web 2.0" wave that we're riding now. Doing more with less being a defining element. Great time to be a bootstraper.
Chris H - Yulp. My only concern is that would people work on the home when they don't have a job. Probably not. I'm not sure which side of the equation will outweigh the other though. We'll have to wait and see.
10:26AM on Jan 16th 2008 by Alex Rudloff
4. Corporate bonds are good as Corp.s will be borrowing money for digging themselves out and helps to keep some of that ownership stateside. Emerging market funds can be good as there are always winners and losers to the world market, someone gains when we go down. Plus there is the increased pressure to outsource more manufacturing to those places with decrease in revenue.
Blue chip stuff becomes a good buy so long as you begin buying when it looks pretty low and keep it steady (dollar cost averaging thing). You win on the uptick. Index stuff like funds or SPDR get you buy on those well enough without worrying about choosing bad companies.
Also you can look for the mergers that come as companies consolidate to survive. Sometimes you get good buys on own the purchased company when it looks bad and get good return on the uptick again. That one is more active and takes more flow to get any good return.
I would agree about the DIY home stuff but that is a later play as China and others that have driven construction supplies north are still rolling. You would have to wait for them slow and a surplus on wood and concrete to then see prices fall and stateside consumers to start flocking back to good deals.
11:04AM on Jan 16th 2008 by Tim Welch